Probability rules: Addition rule, multiplication rule, and complement rule
Now that your students know how to calculate the probability of simple events let's teach them some rules for finding the probability of more complex events. These probability rules are based on logic and common sense, making our lives easier when dealing with probability problems.
The first rule is the addition rule. It says that if you want to find the probability of one event or another event happening, you add their probabilities together. For example, if you flip a coin, the probability of getting heads is 1/2, and the probability of getting tails is also 1/2. So, the probability of getting heads or tails is 1/2 + 1/2 = 1. That makes sense, right? You are guaranteed to get either heads or tails when you flip a coin.
But wait, there is a catch. The addition rule only works when the events are mutually exclusive, which means they cannot happen simultaneously. For example, if you roll a die, the probability of getting a 1 is 1/6, and the probability of getting an even number is 3/6. But you cannot get a 1 and an even number at the same time, so they are mutually exclusive. In this case, the probability of getting a 1 or an even number is 1/6 + 3/6 = 4/6.
However, if the events are not mutually exclusive, which means they can happen simultaneously, then you have to subtract the probability of both events happening from the sum. For example, if you draw a card from a deck, the probability of getting a heart is 13/52, and the probability of getting a face card is 12/52. But you can simultaneously get a heart and face card, such as the King of Hearts. So, they are not mutually exclusive. In this case, the probability of getting a heart or a face card is 13/52 + 12/52 - 3/52 = 22/52. The 3/52 is the probability of getting both a heart and a face card, which we must subtract to avoid double-counting.
The second rule is the multiplication rule. It says that if you want to find the probability of one event and another event happening, you multiply their probabilities together. For example, if you flip two coins, the probability of getting heads on both coins is 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4. That makes sense, too, right? You have to get heads on the first coin and then on the second to get heads on both.
But wait, there is another catch. The multiplication rule only works when the events are independent, meaning that one event does not affect the other. For example, if you roll two dice, the probability of getting a 6 on both dice is 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36. That's because each die has no influence on what the other die shows.
However, if the events are not independent, which means that one event affects the other, then you have to adjust the probabilities accordingly. For example, if you draw two cards from a deck without replacing them, the probability of getting two hearts is not 13/52 x 13/52 = 169/2704. That's because after you draw the first card, there are only 51 cards left in the deck and only 12 hearts left. So, the probability of getting a heart on the second card is not 13/52 but 12/51. In this case, the probability of getting two hearts is 13/52 x 12/51 = 156/2652.
The third rule is the complement rule. It says that if you want to find the probability of an event not happening, you subtract its probability from 1. For example, if you flip a coin, the probability of not getting heads is 1 - 1/2 = 1/2. That's because there are only two possible outcomes: heads or tails. So if you don't get heads, you must get tails.
The complement rule is very useful when finding the probability of an event not happening is easier than the probability of an event happening. For example, if you roll a die, the probability of getting a prime number (2, 3, or 5) is difficult to calculate. But it is easy to find the probability of not getting a prime number (1, 4, or 6), which is just 3/6. So, by using the complement rule, we can find that the probability of getting a prime number is 1 - 3/6 = 3/6.